On June 27, US Eastern time, the first debate of the 2024 presidential election between US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump ended in Atlanta. Biden's performance was less than expected, and although the success or failure of a single debate is not enough to completely determine the final outcome, the expectation of "Trump's return" may continue to ferment.
Xinhua News Agency, Washington, July 1 (Reporter Xiong Maoling) The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on Monday that former President Donald Trump has a degree of immunity from criminal prosecution in a federal case alleging "interference in the 2020 election," and directed a lower court to reconsider the case and determine what acts of public office cannot be prosecuted. This undoubtedly sends a signal to the outside world that Trump has won the election.
On Monday, July 1, Eastern time, US Treasuries fell for the second day in a row, and US Treasury yields climbed to a new high in more than a week, led by long-term Treasury bonds, with 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields rising more than 8 basis points, the latter a new high since June 3.

The yield curve steepened sharply and yields rose sharply.

According to the data released by the US Department of Commerce on June 28, the US personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) rose 2.6% in May, lower than the previous value of 2.7%, in line with market expectations; Month-on-month flat, down 0.3% from the previous value, also in line with expectations. The PCE index is an important measure of U.S. consumer spending and an important tool used by the Federal Reserve to assess inflation. The core PCE (which strips out fluctuations in food and energy prices) is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Interest rates on U.S. bonds, especially long-term ones, are very sensitive to inflation. When the PCE index rises, indicating that inflationary pressures are increasing, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy (raise interest rates) to curb inflation. That would cause interest rates to rise and prices to fall. The performance of the PCE index in May was generally in line with expectations, indicating that inflation pressures are within acceptable expectations, which undoubtedly strengthens the expectation of interest rate cuts. Once the Fed cuts interest rates, it will cause interest rates and prices of US Treasuries to rise.
Yields on both 10-year and two-year Treasuries fell about 12 basis points in June, with recent weaker economic data bolstering expectations of a rate cut and US Treasuries heading for their biggest monthly gain since 2024. However, some analysts said that in view of the worsening supply of US Treasury bonds and fiscal deficit problems, US bond yields are likely to rise again in the second half of this year. Both two-year and 10-year yields jumped about 50 basis points in the first half of the year.